Fellow author, and attendee of the Book Marketing Challenge this past summer, Khafra K Om-Ra-Seti, has written a post for us today covering the major topics in his book.
Khafra has provided us with a sample of the book. You can listen to it here: https://app.box.com/s/w5ila69vs74ynvjsrbgp
Thank you, Khafra, for bringing us your important research about vital economic cycles.
GLOBAL ECONOMIC BOOM AND BUST CYCLES: THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND RECOVERY OF THE 21ST CENTURY
by Khafra K Om-Ra-Seti
The looming economic crisis confronting the world in 2014 is massive and has the potential to severely cripple the global economic system. With each passing day, the economic drama gets elevated with more suspense and uncertainty. There is a tremendous amount of confusion and disagreement (even among experts) as to what is going to happen next? What is the ultimate solution to Europe’s sovereign debt problem? Is America facing an economic catastrophe of its own? Will global wars, extremist’s ideologies and terrorism (we now have a terrorist group called ISIS or ISIL that controls significant economic and financial wealth) bring about economic ruin and collapse. Will “Peak Oil” and the shrinking supply of other natural resources derail the global economy? These are some of the issues discussed in Global Economic Boom and Bust Cycles: The Great Depression and Recovery of the 21st Century, a book that looks deeply into the collapse but also evaluates the significance of the Information Age Revolution and its role in the transition and subsequent recovery era.
This book presents five case studies of boom and bust cycles, providing chronicles of the events as they happened. The reader is presented with significant factors that gave rise to the boom periods and the subsequent bust fallouts. The author makes the case that the journey traveled through these boom and bust periods helps us to better understand the historical paradigm that now dominates the global economic system. What emerges from the historical data examined over the past century and what forms the foundation of much of my thesis is what I call the Grand Convergence Theory, the confluence of a diversity of economic forces bringing about a manifestation of creative destruction and global economic collapse.
Here are some of the major themes covered in this publication:
(1) Grand Convergence Theory: The confluence and convergence of a number of major macro-economic forces heading on a collision course towards a global meltdown greater than 2008. It was recently reported that former Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, stated that “September and October of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression.” And he should know because he was on the front lines and played a major role in keeping the global economy from falling into another devastating Great Depression.
(2) Secular Bull and Bear Markets: Boom (or Bull cycles) and Bust (or Bear cycles) are in general periods of rising and falling markets. Long-term Boom and Bust Cycles are called secular markets, lasting anywhere from 12 to 20 years. Short-term Boom and Bust periods are considered cyclical, lasting 3 to 5 years or less. Most cyclical Bull markets last about five years. The cyclical Bear market of December 2007 to June of 2009 (According the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research), has gone on record as lasting 18 months. So these periods will come in various shapes and sizes. It’s also important to note that during a secular bull or bear market, cyclical bull or bear markets will occur. The big question in 2014 is whether we are in secular bull or bear market? My analysis follows the train of thought that we are at the tail end of a secular bear market that is being driven to an apex by a cyclical bull market (in America) that bring about a massive meltdown in global markets.
(3) The Mother of ALL Boom and Bust Cycles: Every great BOOM cycle is always followed by a massive BUST cycle. We are now living in the time of the “Mother of all boom and bust cycles”. This publication covers five major boom and bust cycles, and provides a narrative of each period taking the reader up to the time of the “Great Meltdown of 2008”.
(4) The Federal Reserve System (the FED) and global Central Banks: The massive money printing since 2009 by the FED and other central banking institutions around the world, has created a recovery in America that is based more on stock market valuations than on the general economic well being of the nation. The overall impact of this massive creation of money printing has (in my opinion) created the illusion that we have entered a new “Secular Bull Market”, despite the fact that we are still in an era of the “deleveraging of debt” and the demographic reality of over 75 million baby boomers moving into retirement years. In addition, since the 2008 meltdown, the middle class in America has been decimated. With the FED (in 2014) orchestrating the “tapering” of its “Quantitative Easing (QE)” bond operations, the Wall Street crowd is convinced that current Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will backstop any major declines in the stock markets. Short term interest rates are not expected to go up until the middle of 2015, so there is confidence in this current rally. Thus, the FED is exerting massive influence in the extension of our current cyclical bull market.
(5) The Information Age and Technological Revolution: In 2014, and over the next five years, we will enter the next phase of the technological revolution that will bring into existence massive exponential developments and productivity gains. In the short run, more jobs will lost than created. The most profound impact of this period will be the speed at which things will change and the exponential nature of the end results. Much of it will seem like science fiction and many people will not understand the full implications of these massive changes. All of this will set the stage (or be the main foundation) for the next secular global bull market.
(6) CHINA, a new global superpower. The economic rise of China is clearly a game changer in the arena of global economic development and geopolitical power.
(7) JAPAN: Since 1990, Japan has been in a deflationary environment (well over two decades). This extraordinary “Secular Bust Cycle” followed (in a grand historical pattern) one of the 20th century’s greatest Boom cycles. Extraordinary wealth was created during Japan’s economic, financial, scientific and technological rise in the 20th century. A major part of Japan’s prolonged
deflationary decline is attributed to its aging population, as many Japanese workers are entering their retirement years and are saving more and spending less.
(8) The EUROPEAN UNION (EU): The sovereign debt crisis is leading the EU into a Japanese-style deflationary era. The EU appears to be the epicenter of the next major bubble bursting crisis.
(9) AMERICA: The United States of America, one of the most successful nations in the history of the world, is now entering (in 2014) a period that will end an era of economic, political and military global dominance. There is clearly a new multi-polar world order emerging, and this cannot be suppressed or derailed. There are very serious developments taking shape in the developing nations (particularly among the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa) to create a competing currency system challenging the “dollar” in its role as the global reserve currency. In July 2014, the BRICS announced that they have established a $100 billion Development Bank and a reserve currency pool worth over another $100 billion dollars. This new Development Bank will provide monetary resources for infrastructure and development projects similar to what the IMF and World Bank have been doing since the end of World War II. In the known history of the world, no one nation has been able to sustain a dominance over the entire world for an expanded period of time. When a nation goes beyond its time limit of hegemony, it goes into a period of decline and collapse. The most recent global example of this is the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. America’s debt is rapidly approaching $18 trillion and this nation has to borrow billions of dollars every single month in order to continue functioning. This is clearly not sustainable which is why America has to cut back on its global designs before it is too late!
(10) The Concentration of Extreme Wealth and Great Depressions: There have been many writers that have talked about the massive impact of the concentration of extreme wealth and the emergence of economic depressions. In the early 1990s, Dr. Ravi Batra, author of, “The Great Depression of 1990”, stated that “wealth inequality is a prerequisite for manias and bubbles. The greater the inequality or concentration of extreme wealth, the bigger the bubble and the painful its eventual bursting”. A more recent discussion on this topic is presented by author Thomas Picketty in his book, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” (March 2014), which goes into great detail and historical analysis (covering 20 centuries of data) supporting his thesis of income inequality and the global concentration of extreme wealth. We live in the age of the “billionaire” and the massive concentration of wealth which will ultimately play a significant role in bringing about the next major global economic meltdown at the end of our current secular bear market. And after this massive secular bust cycle, extreme wealth will play a major role in initiating the next global economic secular boom market. The major point being made here is that extreme wealth is a major catalyst in orchestrating and initiating both bull and bear markets.
Update: Congratulations to the five audio book winners. You will receive your prizes directly from the author:
Khafra’s contact information and links:
Khafra K Om-Ra-Seti
Author and Publisher
Free Audio Book Sample: http://www.bubblemarkets.net/sampleaudio.html
Youtube Book Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZmbe7hspII
Youtube Audio Book Sample: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpwEY1IjkWI
Gina: As always, thank you for reading.